Men’s sperm counts appear to be declining

“A British survey suggested 10% of men in the UK may suffer from low
sperm counts, and in Australia, reports indicate one in 20 men is
infertile. France, Denmark, and Germany have also found declines in
sperm density,” she reports.

What is triggering the apparent decline?

Scientists don’t know, but obesity, increasing use of antidepressants,
estrogen-like chemicals that are common in plastics and the
environment, and diets rich in hormone-fed beef are among the possible
culprits, Nauth says, adding: “The bottom line is that this trend
points to the possibility of a major fertility crisis, with serious
impacts for both consumers and businesses.”

DRIVERS

Nauth says she could foresee this wildcard affecting foods, chemicals,
pharmaceuticals, genetic services, childcare and education providers,
adoption services, dating practices, and more.

“It could also lead to explosive growth in the use of fertility
treatments, or—at the other extreme—the possibility of women using
genetics to conceive without men’s participation,” she adds.

Consider some of the factors that appear to be driving the trend:

• Endocrine disruptors. These natural and synthetic estrogens and
estrogen-mimickers come from a variety of sources including
birth-control effluent in municipal water supplies, plastic beverage
bottles that contain estrogen-like bisphenol-A or phthalate esters, and
chemicals like nonylphenol that are found in cleaners and pesticides.

• Consumption of hormone-fed beef. Consumption of hormone-fed beef four
or more times per week by pregnant women may affect testicular
development in their male offspring. For instance, men born in the US
from 1949–1983 were found to have lower sperm counts if their mothers
ate beef daily during pregnancy.

• Mobile phone use. Prolonged mobile phone use has also been fingered
by several studies to impact sperm counts. In one, men who talked more
than four hours/ day on a mobile phone produced 40% fewer sperm than
men who never used a mobile; in another, men experienced a 30% drop in
sperm count when they carried a mobile in their pants pocket.

OBSTACLES

But Nauth says there are some factors that could reverse the trend, including:

• Organic foods. A broad move by consumers to organic foods and
household products—and/ or a move by producers to “greener”
manufacturing—could counter this wildcard.

• BPA-free containers. Compelling new evidence about the hazards of
estrogen-mimicking chemicals might force companies to switch to
containers made from corn-based or other innovative plastics that are
free from BPA and other endocrine disruptors.

• Government intervention. Levels of endocrine disruptors in the
environment may be too low to cause the kinds of damage that have been
imputed to them. The US Food and Drug Administration, and its
counterparts in Japan and Germany, have stated they see no threat from
BPA, for instance.

OUTCOMES

With any wildcard, the outcomes could go in a variety of directions, Nauth says.
“At present, sperm count declines are geographically limited, but if
chemical culprits are clearly identified in a particular area,
regulators and industries around the world would likely ban, restrict,
or replace the culpable chemicals with alternatives.”

Additionally, though signs of rising infertility have been most
pronounced in World 1, they could show up in any region—especially
those with significant chemical contamination.

“That suggests infertility could begin to rise in China or other places
where regulation is low and chemical use is rising rapidly,” Nauth
suggests.

If that happens, she believes the market for fertility treatments would
surge in response to mass infertility. Consider these potential
outcomes:

• Pharmaceutical manufacturers might divert substantial levels of
R&D funding to fertility treatments. “In turn, other kinds of
health issues could increase in the face of reduced funding,” Nauth
warns.

• Services could arise to provide “fertility certifications” to men in the marriage market.

• Medicalized conceptions could become the norm.

• International adoptions would increase.

• Ultimately, women could seek to conceive without the participation of men.

How would that last outcome come to fruition?

“In 2007,” Nauth explains, “German scientists announced they will be
able to produce sperm cells from bone marrow by 2010—raising the
possibility that women’s own bone marrow could be used to create
‘female sperm’ and allow women to bear daughters without fathers.”

LEARN MORE
To learn more about the trends and forecasts in this report and what
they mean for your organization, set up an interview with Kristin
Nauth. Send a query to Hope Gibbs, leader of corporate communications:
hope [dot] gibbs [at] socialtechnologies [dot] com.

Kristin Nauth ) Futurist
Kristin Nauth serves as Social Technologies’ senior editor and also
contributes to the firm’s multiclient and custom projects as a
writer/analyst. Kristin has been in the futures field since 1995,
performing services such as trend analysis, environmental scanning, and
scenario development for leading firms including Global Business
Network, the Institute for Alternative Futures, and Coates &
Jarratt, as well as for corporate clients including Procter &
Gamble, Kellogg, and Cadbury Adams. Previously Kristin worked as a
Washington-based business journalist and competitive intelligence
professional. She received her degree in philosophy and English from
The Evergreen State College. Areas of expertise: Boomers / Gen X/ Gen Y

About ) Social Technologies
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specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation.
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